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Sam Stein and Will Saletan take on the messy first day of U.S.-Iran talks—Trump's threat to seize the Strait of Hormuz and kill negotiators, JD Vance appearing to get publicly snubbed, and the Lebanon clause that may have handed Hezbollah a veto over the whole deal. Become a Bulwark Youtube Plus Member here - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG4Hp1KbGw4e02N7FpPXDgQ/join

In a historic event, the Iranian and American delegations today came under one roof as negotiations on the recently signed MoU began in Switzerland. However, the Iranian delegation, led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, walked out of the negotiations and refused to share the stage for a joint photo session with the US delegation, which was headed by JD Vance. This came immediately after Donald Trump reportedly told an American TV channel that he would occupy Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Rifat Jawaid makes sense of the day's rapidly changing developments.

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Iran's delegation reportedly walked out of Swiss peace talks after President Trump renewed threats against Tehran. Iranian state media claimed negotiators left the venue following Trump's warning over Iran-backed Hezbollah. Trump warned Iran to immediately rein in its proxies or risk further American military action. Iran negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf fired back, warning the US should "be careful" with its rhetoric. The dramatic scenes raised fresh doubts about efforts to secure a permanent peace agreement.

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The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated into what can only be described as a "ship show." Following a brief moment of hope for a ceasefire and the reopening of the waterway, the emergence of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has thrown maritime operations into chaos. In this Week 16 recap, we break down the conflicting signals: while the U.S. declares the "Southern Highway" open and free for transit, Iran is asserting authority over the entire strait, demanding new "insurance" clearances that many in the industry view as a protection racket. We look at the data from Marine Traffic to see who is actually sailing, which ships are turning their AIS off, and why major carriers like Maersk remain cautious despite the diplomatic "14 points." In this episode: ⚓The impact of the PGSA’s new requirements on global shipping. ⚓Analysis of tanker movements: Who is using the Iranian vs. Omani channels? ⚓The reality of demining efforts and why the "Southern Highway" remains high-risk. ⚓US Blockade Officially Lifted & Toll Uncertainties ⚓How China and Russia are positioning themselves as oil and commodity markets shift. 0:00 - Introduction & The Current "Ship Show" 2:25 - Lloyd's List: Operational Impact of Iran's Closure 3:16 - Marine Traffic Analysis: Tanker Movements & Routes 5:58 - MSC Container Ship Incidents & AIS Behavior 7:27 - Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) & Historical Context 10:04 - Week 16 Recap: From Initial Strikes to Project Freedom 12:35 - Trump's Iran Deal & Market Reactions 13:58 - Challenges of Alternative Routes & Demining 16:53 - Industry Restrictions & Shipping Rate Spikes 18:11 - Qatar Energy & Global LPG Market Shifts 22:08 - Saudi Super Tankers & Loading Operations 23:45 - US Blockade Officially Lifted & Toll Uncertainties 27:10 - US Central Command (CENTCOM) Advisory for Southern Route 29:50 - Other Global Shipping News & Wrap-up Contact What's Going on With Shipping via: Patreon: www.patreon.com/wgowshipping Twitter: @mercoglianos Bluesky: @mercoglianos.bsky.social Facebook: @wgowshipping Email: mercoglianosal@gmail.com Marine Traffic www.marinetraffic.com UKMTO JMIC Advisories https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-advisories/2026 Persian Gulf Strait Authority PGSA.ir gCaptain www.gcaptain.com